Data & Analysis > In-Depth Analysis > Contextualizing mCPR Growth
The S-Curve: Putting mCPR Growth into Context

Challenges in countries with low contraceptive prevalence

Historical data shows us that modern contraceptive prevalence (mCPR) grows in an S-shaped pattern. This is characterized by slow growth and little annual change when mCPR is low (Stage 1), an opportunity for rapid growth in the middle during the transition from low to high mCPR (Stage 2), and slowing growth as mCPR reaches its maximum (Stage 3). While all countries will go through this general pattern, the duration and speed of growth seen in each stage will vary. Understanding this concept provides countries with a template that can assist in:

  • Identifying program priorities
  • Setting realistic targets for growth and contraceptive prevalence goals
  • Maximizing the potential of obtaining the demographic dividend

Find out more about the s-curve in FP2020 countries on our Country Opportunity Briefs

Published October 2017