The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is designed to use all available data to develop annual estimates of three indicators commonly used to track progress in a family planning program beyond the date of the last survey and into the future.
Nationally representative household population surveys are most often the source of data that informs national strategies and budgets in a country. However, there are often gaps of 5 or more years between surveys, leaving countries with no current data with which to monitor and plan programs. FPET can fill this data gap by producing annual estimates.FPET calculates annual estimates for 3 common FP indicators for married women or all women of reproductive age
Annual estimates of these three indicators give countries the information they need to answer the questions:
FPET's annual estimates allow countries to better monitor progress, estimate how CPR and unmet need are changing in response to current programming, and make necessary adjustments to accelerate progress toward their FP goals. Without annual estimates, countries are limited to using the data from their last survey, which may be five or more years old and limit their ability to actively monitor their FP programs.
FPET is a Bayesian hierarchical model, meaning that it estimates the likelihood of a given future result based on global knowledge of how countries' contraceptive prevalence rates have historically transitioned from low to high, and is informed by data at multiple levels (country, sub-regional, regional, global).
Using this information, the model aims to provide the best estimate of annual values for the 3 key indicators, as well as estimate the confidence interval around the data points. So, if a country has very little data, the regional and global trends, as well as historical time trends (such as mCPR growth) will provide you the best estimate for the current year.
FPET is unique in that it considers survey data, service statistics (where determined to be of adequate quality), and regional and global historical patterns of change to produce annual estimates of CPR and unmet need. For FPET, more data points, even conflicting ones, only strengthen the model's ability to predict future trends.
FPET includes pre-loaded data for 69 countries pulled from the United Nations Population Division (UNDP) World Contraceptive Use database.
FPET was developed through a collaboration between Track20, UNDP, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst. FPET is built on the existing UN Population Division (UNPD) estimation model that produces annual estimates of key family planning indicators (CPR, mCPR, Traditional Method Use, Unmet Need for Modern Contraception, Demand Satisfied by Modern Contraception). You’ll learn more about the key modifications that were made to the UNDP model to create FPET in the training materials.
Review the FPET Overview brief and Introduction to FPET PowerPoint presentation below for a detailed introduction to FPET. For more technical background on the model’s development and to learn more about how FPET has been used, read the two journal articles below about the global implementation of this approach to estimating key family planning indicators and implementing FPET at the state level in India.
Understanding the different kinds of data that FPET uses is important. Move on to Data Basics to learn more about surveys, service statistics, and population data.