FPET is a Bayesian hierarchical model, meaning that it estimates the likelihood of a given future result based on global knowledge of how countries' contraceptive prevalence rates have historically transitioned from low to high, and is informed by data at multiple levels (country, sub-regional, regional, global).
Using this information, the model aims to provide the best estimate of annual values for the 3 key indicators, as well as estimate the confidence interval around the data points. So, if a country has very little data, the regional and global trends, as well as historical time trends (such as mCPR growth) will provide you the best estimate for the current year.
FPET is unique in that it considers survey data, service statistics (where determined to be of adequate quality), and regional and global historical patterns of change to produce annual estimates of mCPR and unmet need. For FPET, more data points, even conflicting ones, only strengthen the model's ability to predict future trends.
FPET Origins: FPET is built on the existing UN Population Division (UNPD) estimation model that produces annual estimates of key family planning indicators (CPR, mCPR, Traditional Method Use, Unmet Need for Modern Contraception, Demand Satisfied by Modern Contraception).
Some key modifications were made to the UNDP model to create FPET, including:
Creating a one country version: When the UN runs its model, it takes multiple days and it runs the model for the entire world. The FPET model allows you to run one country at a time and is much faster - about 15 minutes per country.
Potential to Add Service Statistics: The ability to add a country's own service statistics to further inform estimates is unique to FPET. Adding service statistics helps inform the projection past the last survey point and helps inform the family planning indicators by "trend" rather than the "absolute" increase/decrease.
Available Online for Open Use: FPET is available at no cost online for everyone to use and includes pre-loaded data.
Ability to run sub-nationally: FPET can be used at the subnational level, so for decentralized countries like Nigeria, State runs can be done and aggregated up to a national level.
FPET was developed through a collaboration between Track20, UNDP, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Understanding the different kinds of data that FPET uses is important. Move on to Data Basics to learn more about surveys and service statistics.
