Track20 develops tools that help partners- at both the country and global level- engage in data analysis.
FP Goals is an innovative new model designed to improve strategic planning. FP Goals combines demographic data, family planning program information, and evidence of the effectiveness of diverse interventions to help decision-makers set realistic goals and prioritize investments across different family planning interventions.
Learn more about FP Goals in this overview presentation.
Using evidence from more than 70 studies, estimates have been made of the potential effectiveness of a range of interventions on increasing mCPR. The following types of interventions are included in the model:
Below is an illustrative example of FP goals result. The model shows you the mCPR growth estimated in each scenario, as well as the relative contribution of each intervention. Results can be used to assess a realistic mCPR goal, and support discussions on prioritization of interventions.
Track20's Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is a web application that uses all available survey data to produce annual estimates for key family planning indicators, such as contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning.http://fpet.track20.org/
In order to address the need for annual estimates of Family Planning indicators as part of the FP2020 initiative, the Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) was produced by the Track20 Project, in collaboration with the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) and the National University of Singapore.
FPET projects annual estimates for contraceptive prevalence and the percentage of women with an unmet need for contraception, based on all available survey data and service statistics data, where available. Depending on what data is entered into the tool, FPET can be used to produce either national or sub-national estimates.
FPET is a Bayesian hierarchical model.
A Bayesian hierarchical model is a statistical model that estimates the likelihood of a given result based on prior observed values, and is informed by data at multiple levels.
For the purpose of producing annual estimates of contraceptive prevalence, these models incorporate:
Using this information, the model aims to provide the best estimate of those data points that haven’t been observed through a survey (mCPR in a year without a survey and future projections of mCPR).
The graphs on the right are an examples of the output from FPET. In these graphs, the individual circles and squares represent all the available survey estimates of mCPR among married women, from 1980 to 2015.
The grey area represents the full range of possible values, while the middle black line represents the median estimate. This median value is what is used as the best estimate of annual mCPR among married women for Track20 and FP2020.
|Learn more about FPET in this overview presentation.||Coming soon|
|FPET Instructions for producing both national and sub-national estimates.||English French|
|Use the FPET Data Preparation Tool to prepare your country historic survey data for running in FPET. The tool along with instructions are provided here.||English French|
|Read about the Global Implementation of this approach to estimating key family planning indicators||National, regional, and global rates and trends in contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning between 1990 and 2015: a systematic and comprehensive analysis|
|Read about the implementation of FPET at the State Level in India||Levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning for 29 states and union territories in India: a modelling study using the Family Planning Estimation Tool|
Track20 has developed the Service Statistics to Estimated Modern Use (SS to EMU) tool to assist countries in converting service statistics data into estimates of modern method use (EMU is a proxy for mCPR), that can be used as input in the Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET).
Download the SS to EMU Tool
The FPET model is designed to produce annual estimates of mCPR based on data from surveys. However, surveys are rarely available on an annual basis, and in some cases, may not have been conducted for many years.
Service statistics data is generally available on an annual (and even monthly) basis, and can provide the model with additional data on changes in prevalence after the last survey. This is especially useful in cases where survey data may be outdated or where dramatic social changes or expansions in family planning programming have occurred since the last survey.
The SS to EMU tool was developed to transform several types of generally available service statistics data (family planning commodities distributed, family planning visits, or family planning users) into values that can be entered into FPET to inform estimates of mCPR.
The two graphs above are examples of how service statistics data is reviewed for quality. The first graph illustrates the number of users that have been estimated by method, based on the service statistics data input. The second set of graphs compares the estimated method mix based on the service statistics data compared to the last survey. These two graphics are reviewed to sense check the data – are trends in individual methods reasonable given current programmatic efforts – and look for any indications of errors – is the method mix substantially different than was found in a recent survey? If so Is there any reasonable explanation or could this indicate an error in the data?
The above graph shows the final results of the SS to EMU tool, a comparison of the EMU (estimated method use) calculated from the various types of service statistics data provided, compared to survey results for mCPR among all women and FPET estimates of mCPR among all women. The goal of this graphic is to allow the user to review the estimates produced by the tool in comparison to other sources of data and determine which data comes closest to approximating survey and FPET results and whether that data can be used in FPET.
The EMU values produced by the SS to EMU Tool can be entered in FPET along with Survey results in order to inform estimates of mCPR. Incorporating the service statistics data can improve estimates in years beyond the last survey, informing the trend with more recent data as well as narrowing the confidence interval around the estimates. See the graphs below:
Track20 has prepared this Microsoft Excel-based calculator to allow individuals to produce estimates of 9 Core Indicators for any of the FP2020 countries, for 2012 to 2020, based on UNPD population data and some country-specific data that you will enter. This tool uses FPET output and additional survey data to produce the following indicators: