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Potential Market of Self-Injectable Contraceptive Users in FP2020 Countries through 2030

The Potential Market of Self-Injectable Contraceptive Users is an Excel-based tool developed by Track20 to estimate the number of potential self-injectable contraceptive users annually through 2030.

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The model's goals are as follows:

Goals

Self-injectable contraceptive users may come from injectable contraceptive users who currently receive injections from health workers, other short-term method users, and non-users. Non-users transitioning to self-injectable use may come through two channels: injectable users who have discontinued and are not currently using, but would use a self-injectable contraceptive; and non-users who would use self-injectable contraceptives because of the decreased side-effects, increased availability, and ease of use associated with self-injection.

Population

The model allows variations on three key parameters that will impact projections:

  1. Proportion of Injectable users that will switch to self-injectable contraceptives
  2. Proportion of short-tem method users that will switch to self-injectable contraceptives
  3. Proportion of Non-users, whose reasons for not using would be alleviated by benefits of self-injection (decreased side-effects, increased availability, ease of use) that will uptake self-injectable contraceptives

The model has pre-loaded default data for these three parameters, and users are encouraged to change the parameters to see the impact on self-injectable contraceptive use.

Three result scenarios are presented:

  1. SI Users: The total estimate based on the default parameters with no limiting factors
  2. SI Users Policy: The total estimate discounted for policies and health structures currently in place in countries which might limit or stall self-injectable contraceptive use
  3. SI Users Policy + High Injectable Bonus: The total estimate including both the limitations from previous scenario and a bonus based on high levels of injectable use, given based on the assumption that they will be better positioned to rapidly increase self-injectable contraceptive use
Three Scenarios

These scenarios allow the model to consider factors related to policy, capacity, and current injectable contraceptive use to adjust and ground projections.

The "Interactives" tab allows users to change parameters and see results, either for all FP2020 countries or for individual FP2020 countries selected by the user. The user can change the default parameters presented in the green box. Notes on default data can be found on the “Assumptions” tab.

Parameters

Three indicators are projected for each scenario (aggregated across FP2020 countries): Total self-injectable users in 2030, Other injectable users in 2030, and mCPR in 2030.

Data Table

Data are also visualized in graphics, making it easier to see the impact of changes in parameters. A set of four graphics display results aggregated across all FP2020 countries. The first graphic shows the annual number of users under the three scenarios. The next graphic displays the total number of women of reproductive age, distributed between self-injectable contraceptive use, IM injectable contraceptive use, short-term method use, long term method use, and non-users, for the scenario which includes no policy assumptions. The third graphic shows the total number of contraceptive users under the three scenarios, plus the total number of users under the baseline scenario (with no self-injectable contraceptive use). The final graph projects mCPR.

Assumption Tab

Finally, there is a country-specific table and graphic showing the number of self-injectable users under the three scenarios in an individual FP2020 country chosen by the user.

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Potential Market of Self-Injectable Contraceptive Users Overview Documents English
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