Data & Analysis > Data Sources & Methodology
Data Sources and Methodology for FP2020 Core Indicators

Data sources and methodology for estimating values for the FP2020 Core Indicators, for the most recent FP2020 Progress Report: The Way Ahead 2016-2017 are described below. Instructions on how to calculate Core Indicator estimates for your country, with accompanying Excel tools where applicable, are available under Track20 Resources.

To learn more about the indicators and their definitions, view the FP2020 Core Indicator Table.

Incorporating the newest data to re-estimate trends

Each year, when data for the annual report are prepared, newly released country data (data from surveys, service statistics, new population estimates, etc.) are used in our models to produce new estimates, not just for the current year, but for previous years as well. Continuously incorporating new data allows us to report the best possible estimates at any given point in time. Therefore, Indicators 1-8, which are modeled, are reported for 2012 onwards in each annual FP2020 report, and may have a different value in the current report than in previous reports. For more information, see the Track20 technical brief "Rolling baseline for tracking FP2020 progress".

Data Sources and Methodology, by Indicator
Indicator 1: Number of Additional Users of Modern Methods of Contraception

The number of additional women (or their partners) of reproductive age currently using a modern contraceptive method compared to 2012.

The number of additional users is calculated by taking the difference between the baseline (2012) number of users and the estimated number of users for the year being reported.  In order to calculate this indicator on an annual basis for the duration of the FP2020 initiative, it was necessary to establish a "zero baseline" for the starting point, the year 2012. This allows for a direct way to calculate additional users by simply subtracting the number of users in 2012 from the number of users in the year being reported.

Calculation: Values for Indicator 2, mCPR (all women) were multiplied by the population of women of reproductive age for the respective year. Population data is obtained from the UNPD World Population Prospects 2015 Revision or country-specific population projections. This calculation is done for each year and yields the number of modern contraceptive users in each year. The difference between the 2012 baseline value and the value for each subsequent year is reported as the number of additional users.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 2: Contraceptive prevalence rate, modern methods (mCPR, all women)

The percentage of women of reproductive age who are using (or whose partner is using) a modern contraceptive method at a particular point in time. 

Calculation: mCPR is calculated using Track20's FPET tool, which includes a country's historic and recent DHS, MICS, PMA2020 and other national survey data (mCPR and unmet need).  Based on this data, FPET produces estimates for mCPR among married women; these values are then converted to values that apply to all women of reproductive age (WRA). Track20 is in the process of updating FPET so that it produces estimates for all women, so that this conversion will not be necessary in the future.

Conversion from mCPR for married women to mCPR for all women
For countries with a previous DHS or PMA2020 survey, the ratio of mCPR for all and married women from that survey was used to convert the married women mCPR from FPET to a value for all women. In countries with no previous DHS, a regional estimate was used. In some countries, it was assumed that there is no use of modern contraception by unmarried women, and the number of married modern method users was divided by the population of women of reproductive age to produce an mCPR estimate for all women.

Inclusion of routine data in FPET
Countries producing their own estimates had the option of including country-specific service statistics data in FPET. Incorporating recent routine data from health management information systems into FPET allows the model to produce estimates that better reflect the current situation in the country, particularly when the most recent survey data are out of date. Countries with service statistics data (on contraceptive commodities distributed, or number of visits for contraceptives) of reasonable consistency and quality were able to include this data in their FPET run. Married women values were converted to all women values as described above.

Incorporating service statistics data into FPET requires entry of multiple years of data to calibrate the model. In the FPET model, the trend between the service statistics points (and not the absolute values) inform the mCPR after the last cross-sectional survey data point. It is understood that there is inherent bias in service statistics data, so FPET has been calibrated to correct for this bias.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 3. Percentage of women with an unmet need for modern methods of contraception

The percentage of fecund women of reproductive age who want no more children or to postpone having the next child, but are not using a contraceptive method, plus women who are currently using a traditional method of family planning. Women using a traditional method are assumed to have an unmet need for modern contraception.

Women with an unmet need for family planning are defined as the total number of women who are in need of family planning -- those who are of reproductive age and do not currently desire to become pregnant but are not using a modern method of contraception. Unmet can be a good indicator for measuring the total potential demand for family planning, since women with unmet need have expressed a desire to space or limit births. Traditionally, and for this indicator, unmet need is calculated for women who are married/in union. Furthermore, FP2020 has decided to focus on unmet need for a modern method, which differs from the traditional definition in that it includes traditional method users as part of the unmet need. This is based on the assumption that women using traditional methods have an unmet need for a more highly effective method. 

Calculation:  FPET, as described for Indicator 2, is used to estimate unmet need for a modern method. Note that this estimate is for women who are married/in union, and not all women.

Sources for the estimation of unmet need are the same as for Indicator 2.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 4: Percentage of women whose demand is satisfied with a modern method of contraception

The percentage of women (or their partners) who desire either to have no additional children or to postpone the next child and who are currently using a modern contraceptive method. Women using a traditional method are assumed to have an unmet need for modern contraception.

The indicator assumes that all couples currently using modern contraception want to avoid a pregnancy and that if they did not have access to modern contraception they would be at risk of an unintended pregnancy. Women using traditional methods are assumed to not have their demand for contraception satisfied.

Calculation: Values for the percentage of women whose demand is satisfied with a modern method were calculated using mCPR and percentage of women with an unmet need for modern methods, both produced by FPET, for married/in union women. In order to calculate the percentage of women whose demand is satisfied by a modern method, one simply divides the mCPR by the total demand (total demand = mCPR + unmet need for modern methods). Note that this estimate is for women who are married/in union.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 5: Number of unintended pregnancies

The number of pregnancies that occurred at a time when women (and their partners) either did not want additional children or wanted to delay the next birth.  Usually measured with regard to last or recent pregnancies, including current pregnancies.

Calculation: This indicator is calculated in two steps.  First, the number unintended births is calculated by multiplying the total number of live births (usually from the UNPD) by the % of births for which the pregnancy is reported as wanted later or not at all (usually from DHS or a regional average).

Next, miscarriages and abortions are added to this number to get to the total number of unintended pregnancies that occurred.  For abortions, an estimate from the Guttmacher Institute of the % of unintended pregnancies terminated by abortion is used, and, for miscarriages a global estimate of 13% is used.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 6: Number of unintended pregnancies averted due to modern contraceptive use

The number of unintended pregnancies that did not occur during a specified reference period as a result of the protection provided by modern contraceptive use during the reference period. 

The indicator assumes that all couples currently using contraception want to avoid a pregnancy and that if they did not have access to modern contraception they would be at risk of an unintended pregnancy. This indicator contextualizes the value of accessible family planning services, by showing how many couples are avoiding unintended pregnancy by using family planning.  Unintended pregnancies that result doe to method failure are subtracted from this calculation- so in places where more effective contraceptive methods are used, a relatively larger number of pregnancies will be averted.

Calculation: This indicator is calculated based on the total number of modern contraceptive users in each country, which is calculated by multiplying the mCPR by the total number of women of reproductive age (WRA) in each year. 

From here, two additional calculations are needed. First, it is necessary to estimate the number of pregnancies that would have occurred if those currently using modern contraception had not been using contraception. To get this number, the number of women using modern contraception is multiplied by 32%, which is the globally estimated annual pregnancy rate of women who are not actively trying to get pregnant and are not using contraception.  Second, it is necessary to subtract from this the number of pregnancies that occurred due to method failure (these pregnancies are assumed to be unintended). To get the number of pregnancies occurring due to method failure, you multiply the method-specific failure rates by the number of women using each method (based on the most recent method mix data available), and then add up the resulting unintended pregnancies from each method.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 7: Number of unsafe abortions averted due to modern contraceptive use

The number of unsafe abortions that did not occur during a specified reference period as a result of the protection provided by modern contraceptive use during the reference period. 

Calculation:  This indicator is calculated in two steps. First, the number of unintended pregnancies averted due to contraceptive use, calculated above for indicator 8, is multiplied by the percent of unintended pregnancies that end in an induced abortion.  The data for this is usually a regional figure published by the Guttmacher Institute (% of unintended pregnancies terminated by abortion).  Second, the value from step one is multiplied by the percentage of abortions that are unsafe.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 8: Number of maternal deaths averted due to modern contraceptive use

The number of maternal deaths that did not occur during a specified reference period as a result of the protection provided by modern contraceptive use during the reference period

Calculation: This indicator is calculated in two steps. First, all of the different outcomes of unintended pregnancies averted (Indicator 6) are calculated: unintended births averted, abortions averted (split into safe and unsafe) as described for Indicator 7, and miscarriages averted. The number of unintended births averted is equal to the number of pregnancies averted (estimated above for indicator 6) minus abortions averted (estimated above for Indicator 7), and minus miscarriages averted. The number of miscarriages averted is based on a global miscarriage rate of 13%. 

Next, maternal deaths averted are calculated from each of these unintended pregnancy outcomes. The number of live births averted is multiplied by the live-birth only Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to estimate the number of maternal deaths averted from averting live births.  The live-birth MMR is calculated from the published MMR, adjusting for the mortality due to other pregnancy outcomes.  Unsafe abortions averted are multiplied by an unsafe abortion mortality ratio, which is calculated as the country MMR x regional ratio of unsafe abortion mortality to MMR to estimate maternal deaths averted from averting unsafe abortions.  This calculates a country specific unsafe abortion estimate that is relative the overall MMR in each country.  The number of safe abortions averted is multiplied by a global safe abortion mortality ratio (2 deaths per 100,000 safe abortions).  Finally, miscarriages averted are multiplied by the full MMR to estimate the number of maternal deaths resulting from miscarriages.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 9: Percentage distribution of users by modern method of contraception

The percentage of total family planning users using each modern method of family planning.

Calculation: Method mix is calculated by dividing the method specific prevalence rate by the total modern contraceptive prevalence rate.  Method mix data for each country were obtained from the most recent DHS, MICS, PMA2020 or national cross-sectional survey report.

Modern methods of contraception include pill, injectable, IUD, implant, condom (male), condom (female), LAM, sterilization (male), sterilization (female), and the Standard Days Method. Other modern methods, including diaphragm/foam/jelly, were grouped into an 'other' category. Traditional methods are not included.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 10: Percentage of facilities stocked out, by method offered, on the day of assessment

Percentage of facilities stocked out of each type of contraceptive offered, on the day of assessment

Data for this indicator are obtained from PMA2020 survey reports, or from country reports by UNFPA Supplies (formerly GPRHCS). Data can also be obtained from government logistic reports, or from DHS SPA reports.

Indicator 11a: Percentage of primary SDPs that have at least 3 modern methods of contraception available on the day of assessment

The percentage of service delivery points that have at least 3 modern methods of contraception available on the day of the assessment. This indicator considers methods (such as injectable), not products (such as the 3 month or 6 month injectable) or brands (such as Depo-Provera)

Data for this indicator are obtained from PMA2020 survey reports, or from country reports by UNFPA Supplies (formerly GPRHCS). Data can also be obtained from government logistic reports, or from DHS SPA reports. Sources for Indicator 11a are the same as the sources for Indicator 10.

Note: Since the UNFPA reports present data on percentage of primary SDPs that offer at least 3 modern methods of contraception (and not on the percentage that have 3 methods available on the day of assessment), the data presented for this year do not match the indicator definition. In subsequent years, UNFPA reports will present data according to the FP2020 Core Indicator definition.

Indicator 11b: Percentage of secondary/tertiary SDPs that have at least 5 modern methods of contraception available on the day of assessment

The percentage of secondary and tertiary service delivery points that have at least 5 modern methods of contraception available on the day of the assessment. This indicator considers methods (such as injectable), not products (such as the 3 month or 6 month injectable) or brands (such as Depo-Provera). The determination of which health facilities are defined as “secondary” or “tertiary” will be made at the country level, based on existing classifications.

Data for this indicator are obtained from PMA2020 survey reports, or from country reports by UNFPA Supplies (formerly GPRHCS). Data can also be obtained from government logistic reports, or from DHS SPA reports. Sources for Indicator 11b are the same as the sources for Indicator 10.

Note: Since the UNFPA reports present data on percentage of secondary/tertiary SDPs that offer at least 5 modern methods of contraception (and not on the percentage that have 5 methods available on the day of assessment), the data for this year do not match the indicator definition. In subsequent years, UNFPA reports will present data according to the FP2020 Core Indicator definition.

Indicator 12: Annual expenditure on family planning from government domestic budget

Total annual public sector recurrent expenditures on family planning.  This includes expenditures by all levels of government.

Data for this indicator are obtained either directly from a country's government or from the World Health Organization's System of Health accounts country reports.

Indicator 13: Couple-years of protection (CYP)

The estimated protection provided by family planning services during a one year period, based upon the volume of all contraceptives sold or distributed free of charge to clients during that period. The CYP is calculated by multiplying the quantity of each method distributed to clients by a conversion factor, which yields an estimate of the duration of contraceptive protection provided per unit of that method.

Countries reporting CYP used standard USAID conversion factors and commodity distribution data from their health/logistic management information systems. Sources for reporting countries are listed below.

Download the calculator for this indicator at:
http://www.track20.org/pages/resources/track20_tools.php

Indicator 14: Method Information Index

An index measuring the extent to which women were given specific information when they received family planning services.

The indicator provides a summary measure of the adequacy of information being provided to women by service providers at the time when they chose the method currently being used.  It is used as a measure of the extent to which sufficient information is being provided in order to for women to make informed choices.

Calculation: The indicator is calculated by looking at the three questions:

  1. Were you ever told by a health or family planning worker about other methods of family planning that you could use
  2. Were you ever told by a health or family planning worker about side effects or problems you might have with the method?
  3. Were you told what to do if you experienced side effects or problems?

These questions are asked during DHS and PMA2020 surveys (specific source provided below), of all women who are using select modern methods.

Numerator: the number of women responding “yes” to each of the three questions forming the index (see above)

Denominator: the number of women of reproductive age currently using a contraceptive method responding with a valid answer to each of the three questions forming the index.

Indicator 15. Percentage of women who were provided with information on family planning during recent contact with a health service provider

The percentage of women who were provided information on family planning within the last 12 months through contact with a health service provider or fieldworker. The contact could occur in either a clinic or community setting. Information could have been provided via a number of mechanisms, including counseling, information, education and communication materials or talks/conversations about family planning.

Calculation: The percent of women provided with FP info during last provider visit is a composite of two different questions:

  1. In the last 12 months, were you visited by a fieldworker who talked to you about family planning?
  2. Did any staff member at the health facility speak to you about family planning methods? (Among women who said they  visited a health facility for care for themselves or their children)

These questions are asked during DHS and PMA2020 surveys. If a respondent said “yes” to either of those questions, she was considered to have been provided with FP info during last provider visit. Sources for this indicator are the same as for Indicator 14.

Numerator: the number of women who were provided with FP info during a visit from an FP worker or during a visit to a health facility.

Denominator: Women who either 1) were visited by a family planning worker and/or 2) visited a health facility for any reason.

Indicator 16: Percentage of women who decided to use family planning alone or jointly with their husbands/partners

The percentage of women currently using family planning whose decision to use was made mostly alone or jointly with their husband/partner.

Calculation: This indicator is calculated from the responses to the question:

Would you say that using contraception is mainly your decision, mainly your (husband's/partner's) decision, or did you both decide together?

This question is asked during DHS and PMA2020 surveys. Sources for this indicator are the same as for Indicator 14.

Numerator: the number of women who report making decisions on contraceptive matters either by themselves or based upon consensus joint decision-making with their husband/partner/provider.

Denominator: the number of women of reproductive age currently married or in union responding with a valid answer to a survey question on FP decision-making.

Indicator 17: Adolescent birth rate

The number of births to adolescent females (ages 15-19) occurring during a given reference period per 1,000 adolescent females.  The indicator is analogous to the age-specific fertility rate (ASFR), a component of the total fertility rate (TFR), for 15-19 year olds.

Calculation: Values for this indicator are obtained from the DHS or PMA2020 survey report. The value is taken from the table displaying age-specific fertility rates. Specifically, the value for respondents 15-19 is used.

Indicator 18a: Contraceptive Discontinuation Rate

Among women of reproductive age who began an episode of contraceptive use 3-62 months before being interviewed, the percentage of episodes where the specific method is discontinued within 12 months after beginning its use, reported by whether the woman discontinued while in need of contraception, discontinued because she is not in need of contraception, and the total all-reasons discontinuation rate.

Source: DHS surveys in select years

Indicator 18b: Contraceptive Method Switching

Among women of reproductive age who began an episode of contraceptive use 3-62 months before being interviewed, the percentage of episodes where the specific method is discontinued within 12 months after beginning its use, and use of a different method begins after no more than one month of non-contraceptive use.

Source: DHS surveys in select years